Outlook for Architectural and Design Firms

I attended a joint AIA/SMPS meeting today where the guest speaker was Kermit Foster, Chief Economist for AIA National. Here are the key points I learned from his informative talk:

1. All markets have been deeply effected by the recession and will continue to be negative in 2010.
2. The institutional construction market has been and will be the least effected. This includes education, health care, and government.
3. The remodeling market has been and will be the least effected part of the residential sector. Multi-family construction will be the least effected. There is a growing pent up demand for housing.
4. Long term household growth will be lead by demand from minorities. I'm guessing that any architectural/design/construction firm with a minority brand and/or populated by minorities will do better than others.
5. More design/build demand will come from the institutional markets.
6. Within the institutional markets, college and elementary/secondary projects will lead the growth.
7. Near term growth in the private sector will come from religious institutions and the amusement/recreation markets (e.g. stadiums and arenas).
8. Longer term, growth in architecture and design will come from international projects, consolidation of firms and resources, and projects that offer sustainability.

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